“The Fed has just extended
Operation Twist. This is just an indirect way of printing money. But
what the Fed hinted at is even more important, which is significant
downside risk. The risk in the financial world as a whole right now is
enormous. The Fed knows this and they are trying to avoid direct QE,
but they will not be able to do that for very long.
“So they are also printing money in the
UK. Virtually every single country and government is under pressure,
and one way or another they are all printing money and will continue to
do so.
The printing will continue
because the risk to the financial system at this time is enormous.
Cross-border lending in Europe has collapsed 40% since 2007. This means
that none of the banks are getting any financing. Lending has stopped
in Europe. The banks will not survive for very long in their present
condition.
The Germans have tremendous
pressure on them to lend, but it is not politically acceptable for
Merkel to go ahead with lending. The problem is if the Germans don’t
lend, in the end they will have a banking system that is not going to
survive. They will probably suffer losses of at least 700 billion
euros, if not in the trillions under that scenario.
It’s an impossible
situation for Germany, but they are unlikely to help out with lending.
This is why I see a joint package coming from the ECB, Fed and the IMF.
This package will come when there is a panic situation like we
witnessed in 2008. When that panic comes, and we’re not too far from
that, central banks will ignore politicians and agree to print.
The problem is the
countries themselves are bankrupt. Many countries are borrowing over
100% of GDP, but if you added in all of the unfunded liabilities of the
US, UK, Japan and Greece, many countries have commitments of 500% to
700% of GDP. So every day the risk is increasing for investors.
Complacency here would create an enormous risk for investors.
So what should investors
do? Anything being held in a bank is at risk. Investors will also have
their cash destroyed by money printing. So we are back to a very
simple solution again, investors have to have assets such as gold
outside of the banking system in order to protect themselves.
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