The Wall Street Journal ran an opinion piece this morning by Stephen Fidler titled “A Golden Solution for Europe’s Sovereign-Debt Crisis.” In it, Fidler first suggests using gold as collateral for nation state bond offerings then rejects the idea on three grounds:
1) Central banks not governments own the gold and “the ECB must agree
to any transfers of gold to governments.” He does not mention the
governing document for this assertion, but we’ll take his word for it.
2) A transfer of gold to governments “raises questions about whether
such transfers breach the prohibition on central banks providing
monetary finance to governments.”
3) Most of the euro-zone central banks signed the Washington
Agreement to limit their gold sales. “It is not clear,” says Fidler,
“whether using gold as collateral would be considered inside or outside
the scope of this agreement.”
All three assertions are very good reasons to believe that it would
be difficult to mobilize the gold of European countries as bond
collateral, but there are a few other reasons, beyond the political
hang-ups and restrictions within the euro-zone that need to be
considered.
1) Much of the gold under consideration has already been leased through the bullion banking
system and the metal sits as a paper entry, usually referenced as a
receivable, on central bank balance sheets. Pledging it as collateral
would amount to pledging it twice.
2) There is some question as to whether or Portugal, which is
mentioned in the article as a prime candidate in a gold-as-collateral
bond scheme, has already deposited its gold with the Bank for
International Settlements in some type of collateral arrangement.
3) Even if the gold were available (the amount of leased gold is in
most instances a closely guarded secret) any nation state so encumbering
its gold reserves would surely need to consider the loss of those
reserves due to the depth and seeming intractability of the fiscal and
debt problems in Europe. There is little doubt in my mind that savvy
investors of all sorts, including other central banks and sovereign
wealth funds,
would jump at the opportunity to purchase gold-backed bonds. It
represents a back-channel for unloading unwanted dollars and euros for a
bond likely to default in due time (and possibly in short order) and
result in the delivery of gold — an increasingly scarce monetary
commodity in physical form.
Pledging gold as collateral under the current circumstances in Europe is short step
away from being forced to sell it or ship it in the case of default.
With Europe on the verge of a monetary collapse and economic breakdown
any mobilization of gold would be considered by certain elements within
those nation states as foolhardy. We recall that Greece added to its
gold reserves at one point during its crisis precisely because it was
considering the possibility of either being expelled from the European
Union, or taking leave of its own accord. Under such circumstances, the
more gold in the national treasury the better.
In a sidebar to the article, the Wall Street Journal attempts to make
a case that gold-backed bonds would be bad for gold in that the metal
would need to be sold if there were a default. I think the opposite,
i.e., that this gold would never see the light of day, but go directly
to the bond-holders in question and those bond-holders would likely be
the strong hands of Asian nation states, mega-hedge funds and prominent
investors who would welcome the delivery of gold to their coffers under
what would undoubtedly be some very difficult economic circumstances
globally. Their fear would not be that sales would depress the price
but that they would actually receive the collateral hypothecated by the
nation states.
For the nation states themselves there is more folly than wisdom in
this scheme and more adding to their problems than arriving at a
solution.
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