MOSCOW -- When Vladimir Putin says the United States is endangering
the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he's not just
talking. Hes betting on it.
Not only has Putin made Russia the world's largest oil producer, he
also has made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570
metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than
runner-up China, according to International Monetary Fund data compiled
by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the
Statue of Liberty.
"The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if
there's a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound, or any other
reserve currency," Evgeny Fedorov, a lawmaker for Putin's United Russia
party in the lower house of parliament, said in a telephone interview in
Moscow.
Gold, coveted by Russian rulers including Tsar Nicholas II and the
Bolshevik leader whose forces executed him, Vladimir Lenin, has soared
almost 400 percent in the period of Putin's purchases. Central banks
around the world have printed money to escape the global financial
crisis, sapping investor appetite for dollars and euros and setting off a
scramble for safety.
In 1998, the year Russia defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt,
it took as many as 28 barrels of crude to buy an ounce of gold,
Bloomberg data show. That ratio tumbled to 11.5 by the time Putin first
came to power a year later and in 2005, after it touched 6.5 -- less
than half what it is now -- the president told the central bank to buy.
During a tour that November of the Magadan region in the Far East,
where Polyus Gold International Ltd. and Polymetal International Plc
have operations, Putin told Bank Rossii not to "shy away" from the
metal. "After all, they're called gold and currency reserves for a
reason," Putin said, according to a Kremlin transcript.
At the time, gold was trading at an 18-year high of $495 an ounce and
the Moscow-based central bank held 387 tons, or 2.2 percent of its $165
billion total reserves. The share reached 3.5 percent within a month,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
An ounce of gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,670 as of 7:24
p.m. Moscow time on Feb. 8. It rose 7 percent last year, the 12th
straight year of gains. Analysts expect the metal to advance again in
2013, to $1,825 by the end of the year, according to the median of 26
forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.
"Putin's gold strategy fits in with his resource nationalism, statist
agenda," said Tim Ash, head of emerging-market research at Standard
Bank Plc in London. "It's kind of a defensive play, but it worked,
right?" Ash said in an interview in Moscow. "You need luck in politics
and business, and clearly the guy has it."
Other world leaders haven't been as lucky. Gordon Brown, as U.K.
finance minister, sold almost 400 tons of gold in the 30 months to March
2002, when prices were at two-decade lows. London tabloids have
referred to the period as "Brown's Bottom."
Quantitative easing by major economies to support financial asset
prices is driving demand for gold in the emerging world, said Marcus
Grubb, head of investment research at the World Gold Council. Before the
crisis, central banks were net sellers of 400 to 500 tons a year. Now,
led by Russia and China, they're net buyers by about 450 tons, Grubb
said by phone from London, where his industry group is based.
While Putin is leading the gold rush in emerging markets, developed
nations are liquidating. Switzerland unloaded the most in the past
decade, 877 tons, an amount now worth about $48 billion, according to
International Monetary Fund data through November. France was second
with 589 tons, while Spain, the Netherlands, and Portugal each sold more
than 200 tons.
Even after Putin's binge, though, Russia's total cache of about 958
tons is only the eighth-largest, the World Gold Council said in a Feb. 8
report. The U.S. is No. 1 with about 8,134 tons, followed by Germany
with 3,391 tons and the Washington-based IMF with 2,814 tons. Italy,
France, China, and Switzerland are fourth through seventh. While gold
accounts for 9.5 percent of Russia's total reserves, it accounts for
more than 70 percent in the U.S., Germany, Italy, and France.
Russia keeps about two-thirds of its stockpile in a greenish gray
stone-and-glass building on Ulitsa Pravdy, or Truth Street, in central
Moscow. The street is named after Pravda, the official newspaper of the
Communist Party, which also was headquartered there.
Then-Prime Minister Putin became the first Russian leader to visit
the complex on Jan. 24, 2011, according to the government's website. He
toured the 17,000 square-meter facility, which includes 1,500 square
meters of storage, with First Deputy Chairman Georgy Luntovsky, posing
for photographs lifting an ingot. Most of the bars weigh 10 to 14
kilograms (22 to 31 pounds) and are boxed in plastic or wooden crates
alongside an emergency supply of banknotes.
Technically, state metals depositary Gokhran has the exclusive right
to buy all gold mined in the country. In practice it lets commercial
banks buy from producers directly, usually in the form of project
financing, said Sergey Kashuba, chairman of the Russian Union of Gold
Producers in Moscow.
When the central bank buys gold, it's from those commercial banks,
led last year by OAO Sberbank, OAO Nomos Bank, VTB Group, and OAO
Gazprombank, Kashuba said. Russia produced 205 tons of gold last year,
making it No. 4 after China, Australia, and the U.S., according to U.S.
Geological Survey estimates.
Security is tight along the entire production chain, Kashuba said.
Just two organizations are allowed to move partially refined gold from
miners in the Far East and northern Siberia to processing facilities in
other parts of the country, he said. One is FeldSvyaz, a courier service
that reports directly to Putin. The other, SpetsSvyaz, was split off
from Stalin's NKVD secret police in 1939 to transport precious metals
and state secrets, according to its website.
Russia has gone through bouts of hoarding before. Tsar Alexander II
ordered his government to start amassing bullion in 1867, just months
after selling Alaska, now the No. 2 gold- producing U.S. state, for $7.3
million. His grandson, Nicholas II, introduced the gold standard in
1897, then needed a loan from France to ward off speculators and save
the system in 1906.
Nicholas, Russia's last tsar, was forced to free the ruble in 1914 as
war broke out in Europe. Lenin's revolutionary government reinstated
the gold link along with a new currency in 1922. While Soviet rubles
were nominally backed by gold, sales of the metal to citizens were
halted in 1930, making the peg meaningless.
When Lenin's Bolsheviks seized power in Petrograd, as St. Petersburg
was then known, in 1917, one of their first targets was the State Bank
and its gold, which they captured at 6 a.m. on Nov. 7, according to Bank
Rossii's website. They soon nationalized all the banks, confiscating
any gold found in vaults and deposit boxes.
Communist secrecy regarding the country's gold holdings fueled
speculation that party elites had amassed a huge hoard of bullion that
they spirited out of the country before the Soviet Union disintegrated
in 1991.
Viktor Gerashchenko, the last Soviet central banker and a two-time
chairman of Bank Rossii, has repeatedly denied such speculation,
including last February.
"When people ask about the party's gold, my answer is always: Are you
an idiot or something?" Gerashchenko, 75, told Afisha magazine.
For now, with more than five years left in Putin's term, Russia plans to keep on buying.
"The pace will be determined by the market," First Deputy Chairman
Alexei Ulyukayev said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 25.
"Whether to speed that up or slow it down is a market decision and I'm
not going to discuss it."
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